Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
