Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
